@Article{GiarollaVeNoSiCaCa:2020:SeSuHe,
               author = "Giarolla, Emanuel and Veiga, Sandro Miguel Ferreira and Nobre, 
                         Paulo and Silva J{\'u}nior, Manoel Baptista da and Capistrano, 
                         Vinicius B. and Callegare, Andyara O.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade do Estado do Amazonas (UEA)} 
                         and {University of Potsdam}",
                title = "Sea surface height trends in the southern hemisphere oceans 
                         simulated by the Brazilian Earth System Model under RCP4.5 and 
                         RCP8.5 scenarios",
              journal = "Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "70",
                pages = "280--289",
             keywords = "Brazilian Earth System Model, CMIP5, IPCC AR5 scenarios, RCP4.5, 
                         RCP8.5, sea level trends, sea surface height, southern hemisphere 
                         oceans.",
             abstract = "The Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5), while simulating 
                         the historical period proposed by the fifth phase of the Coupled 
                         Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), detects an increasing trend 
                         in the sea surface height (SSH) on the southern hemisphere oceans 
                         relative to that of the pre-industrial era. The increasing trend 
                         is accentuated in the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios 
                         with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 
                         This study sheds light on the sources of such trends in these 
                         regions. The results suggest an association with the thermal 
                         expansion of the oceans in the upper 700 m due to a gradual 
                         warming inflicted by those future scenarios. BESM-OA2.5 presents a 
                         surface height increase of 0.11 m in the historical period of 
                         18502005. Concerning future projections, BESM-OA2.5 projects SSH 
                         increases of 0.14 and 0.23 m (relative to the historical 2005 
                         value) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by the end of 2100. 
                         These increases are predominantly in a band of latitude within 
                         35608S in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The reproducibility of 
                         the trend signal detected in the BESM-OA2.5 simulations is 
                         confirmed by the results of three other CMIP5 models.",
                  doi = "10.1071/ES19042",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ES19042",
                 issn = "2206-5865",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "giarolla_sea.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}